Real Estate Blog Asheville, NC

After writing the previous post I went and did a little surfing around CNNMoney and found this article.

america-can-not-qualify

Brian

Hi everybody, it is been a couple of weeks since my last entry.  I haven’t written anything because I was waiting to see where all this economic turmoil is going.  The really short answer is nobody knows.  However, to expand upon that just a little bit I will share with you a conversation I had was some clients just the other day.

I was on a listing appointment with a residential client and they ask me my honest opinion of where things stood.  This wasn’t my verbatim response that it went something like this:

Currently our real estate market is suffering however since we are in Asheville, NC real estate market we’re not as bad off as say South Florida.  Primarily what we’re going to see in the market at least through the second quarter of next year are the bloodsuckers; defined as people with the ability to purchase at extremely discounted prices.  Somewhere moving into the third to fourth quarter of next year we should see a slight turnaround in the Asheville real estate market.  So, at the time we listed the property for one month during the fall, for leaf season, and then we will remove it for the winter.  We will then place it back on the market somewhere late spring to early summer of 2009.

However, after seeing what has happened over the past 72 hours and some of the conversations I have had makes me wonder if our turn around and slow painful recovery is not further out.  While our market in Asheville is surviving it is still starting to show some battle scars.  I honestly feel that this recent bailout OK OK not a bailout but a gov’t loan program will be hardly felt by main street.  The main benefactors of this move of course is wall street.  While the fed buying up all of these crappie assets provides money for the banks to start loaning money to each other it does nothing to make it available to the average Joe.  Let’s face it if you do not have a FICO score a ball of 700 and a job history that is long and illustrious YOU DO NOT STAND A CHANCE of getting a loan!!!!  So, while the overall economy may keep moving the future health and prospects for real estate in Asheville are going to be tight at least for the next year to year and a half.

However, the one bright spot in the real estate in Asheville is the green industry.  While conventional stick built construction and sales of preexisting homes seems to be slowing somewhat it appears as though healthy built/LEED certified homes are selling well.  So, the economic turn down is going to have some affect on the green industry, but I feel it will outperform the traditional real estate and construction industries by a long shot.

Brian

Well, as I mention this morning it appears as though the 30 year fixed interest rate has been dropping all day.  On my website at www.carolina-mountain.com there is an interest rate ticker on the side menus that show a real time reflection of the national average on varying interest rates.  As I worked on the website today I kept noticing their rates declining little by little.  This morning the interest rates were in the low six’s, as of this post they are now listed at 5.92.  Maybe, the seizure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the fed on Sunday will help suit are troubled real estate markets.

Brian

Anyone who follows the financial markets and how they directly relate to real estate, must have been relieved by the Feds takeover of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.  All summer long the financial markets have had a nervous eye cocked towards the two mortgage industry giants.  As the backer of almost half the mortgage debt in the United States the collapse of these two companies would have almost certainly created a bigger hole for real estate to continue tumbling into.  Below I have attached links to pdf files which have the CNN monies stories on this topic.

fed-seizes-fannie-and-freddie

Effect of Fed Seizure on Mortgage Rates

So, what does this mean for the Asheville, NC real estate market short term?  As alluded to in the CNN money report, the short term effect could be a possible lowering of the 30 year fixed interest rates, but there’s something more important at stake.  That’s the availability of lending.  Without the two mortgage industry giants purchasing and repackaging mortgages on the secondary market, the primary lending institutions would almost cease to function because the flow of money would cease to exist.  So, the fed’s seizing control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should stabilize the mortgage industry in the short term.

As of 8:00AM Monday morning that news of the fed’s move has mostly been received positively.  Markets in China and India as well as other foreign markets have all had a positive reaction to the news and have postage sharp gains.

Personally, I feel that the move by the fed was positive for the mortgage industry and the real estate markets for the simple fact that there will still be some lending available in the market.  While that lending is going to be very hard to get even for those folks with stellar credit ratings, at least there will still be some available.  On another issue, I feel it is absolute bull that the taxpayers should spend one red cent helping the CEOs and the other heads of these corporations.  These crooks, while their being replaced, are still going to walk with millions of dollars.  I personally feel that these SOB’s should be held personally accountable for benefiting from the profiteering and risk taking that they allowed their companies to orchestrate which set the stage for the collapse of the real estate market.  While this will never happen, I think it sends a pour message to the rest of corporate America that if they fail in their attempts to fleece their own pockets the U.S. taxpayer will come in for the rescue.

That’s how I feel, how do you feel?

Brian

Hi everybody Brian Barrett here and I know it has been quite a while since I’ve posted anything on our real estate blog, but I’m going to make a sincere effort to get back to a more regular schedule.  My attentions that as of late have been focused on our construction company blue ridge homes and starting a new family with my wife Mary Lynn.  I have also spent the last several weeks getting involved with a new home business opportunity which you can find at www.gettingpaidtoeat.com.  However, I am still very much focused and involved in the day to day operations of Carolina Mountain Realty & Development and if you will stay tuned, you will be seeing a lot of editing and new editions to the website at www.carolina-mountain.com. I am also going to be updating this blog a more regular schedule of width great information concerning the Asheville real estate market and Mortgage Industries.  I know that the news has been delete coming from the media, but I believe the bottom of our market is in sight and I will be expanding upon these ideas and the very near future.  So stay tuned and have a great labor day weekend.

Brian

I wanted to post a real quick note to let those of you who haven’t refinanced or are home shopping to GET IN THE GAME!!!  I have attached a  little email message I got from a lender today.

The bond market has moved below the 200 day moving average for only the 3^rd time in the past 3 years! When the bond market suffers, so do interest rates and you begin to see them climb. We have already seen this since late last week!

Reports are saying we are beginning a shift in the market towards higher interest rates!

That being said, If you have been thinking about a refinance or purchase but haven’t locked in yet, NOW IS THE TIME before rates get any worse.

Call or e-mail me ASAP for current pricing!

Thanks!

Joseph Wahl

Mortgage Specialist

The little ticker on the right hand page of my website www.carolina-mountain.com jumped .12% on the 30yr fixed in just 36hrs.  We all knew this was going to happen, just not so soon.

Brian

Sorry it has been so rocky getting me to post, but believe it or not I have been busy.  YEAH!!!!!!  But, seriously, I have been working on the mother ship www.carolina-mountain.com to hopefully make it more useful for my clients, both current and future.  I hope to have the members section open soon, but it has been a real bear.  I have been teaching myself HTML as I move along so please stand-by.  Also anybody out there good at SEO?  Please let me know…..

There has been an absolute ton of developments in the real estate markets around Asheville and I promise to set down in the next couple of days and elaborate.  Anyway talk to ya soon.

Brian

Well it has been a while since my last post so I thought I would take just a second for a couple of updates:

1) Well the Super Wal-Mart and Lowes in Weaverville is finally back underway.  After some wrangling with local utilities companies it appears as though the developer of this project has finally gotten back underway putting to rest the rumor mill that had reported the developer as being bankrupt.  It appears that the rumor was nothing more than ill informed locals.  I personally look forward to having the shopping amenities in the area north of Asheville.

2) It appears as though we are finally starting to see some drop in the 30yr fixed mortgage rates.  After months of steady increases we are finally starting to see rates right at 6% or just a little under.  While is not having an effect on home sales, the new rates are at least helping many refinance their homes into locked interest rates.

3) Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac have finally been given a need shot in the arm from the fed, fannie-rates-reduction.pdf, and have also lowered their rates and amount of down payment needed in an effort to prop up the ailing Real Estate markets across the country.

4) And miracles of miracles,  Mars Hill has voted in alcohol sales.  For the first time ever we can go to the local store and buy either beer or wine!!!  It will be interesting to see what effect this has on the area, but everyone I have talked to seems very excited about the prospects.

5)Also in Mars Hill news, Ingles is slated to open the doors on its new grocery store in about 10 to 11 months.  This another huge boost for locals who have been suffering with a woefully inadequate store for many years.  Thanks Bob…..

Just a couple of thoughts as sit and watch the SNOW coming down here in Madison Co. 

Brian

   I am not sure how many of you saw the article in the Citizen-Times on Sunday, but it is alot of the same in most aspects.  The link for the article is here, Real Estate Market in Asheville 01/27/2008.  However, there was a little glimmer of hope at the end of the article.  I had been saying all weekend that while the market was down and still declining, that I felt that there were alot of buyers out there circling.  I believe there is a lot of money targeting the Asheville area starting this year and continuing for quite sometime.  As the article mentions the “Baby Boomers” have some savings and might be waiting it out to see if they can time the bottom of the market and get the best deal.

As for the developers, I feel that a good portion of the serious “full-time” land developers will be back in the hunt this year and ready to get something going for the end of 08 into 2009.  However, these developers have got to do better than one acre subdivisions with no since of community.  ITS DONE, ITS BEEN DONE, lets move on to something more inventive, more imaginative. 

Anyway, folks if you are thinking of refinancing wait til Feb.  If you are thinking of selling a home wait til spring.  If you are a buyer, I think I would start looking now and be ready for the bottom of the market somewhere late winter early spring.

Hopefully I am not completely wrong, but I agree with the Citizen-Times article, that there is a whole lot of pent-up of desire for Asheville and it is going to bust.

Brian

I doubt too many homes were sold in Asheville this past week, seeing as it was a holiday week.  Yes, I use “holiday”, but we do not need to get into that here.  It is brutally cold right now, and snow is on the ground.  Great way to start the new year.  Right now, everyone is worried about the housing market, and most do not predict a recovery (nationally) until 2008.  What about locally?  Well, every time i turn around another indicator is not indicating the same thing as the last.  We have a large inventory of homes on the market, but prices are rising.  Just today I saw an article that said construction spending rebounded for november.  (these stats are always a month behind current)  My verdict?  wait and see.  Asheville is popular, and it will survive more downturns than other areas.  Good luck in the new year, i hope it is prosperous to all, and i hope everyone will take a little time to do something nice for a neighbor in 2008. 

David