Real Estate Blog Asheville, NC

With all of the national news surrounding home prices plummeting, and home sales falling, i read this article in the Citizen Times.  Here is the gist of it.. 

ASHEVILLE – Area single-family homes are still increasing in value, a federal government report released today says, even though the number of homes sold has declined dramatically.

Single-family homes in the Asheville metropolitan statistical area – Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson and Madison counties – increased 9.4 percent in value over the 12 months ended Sept. 30, according to figures from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.

That was the ninth-highest appreciation rate among metropolitan areas across the country. The national average was a 1.8 percent increase, the lowest since 1995. (end) 

So, what now?  sales are slowing.  Time on the market is increasing, but prices are still rising and a great pace.  For those of you used to 12-18% increases per year, close to 10% is still great, if not a little too high.  So what does this all mean?  Normally, when sales slow ie time on the market increases, prices begin to decrease or fall so that the homes will sell.  this is the natural supply/demand curve.  By saying this, i do not mean that prices will decrease to a negative rate (ie -2%), but one would think that prices would not rise 10%.  I just do not know.  I hope that prices will find a good steady rate, somewhere in the 6-8% a year growth, and time on that market will rebound to an accceptable rate.  3-4 months or so average.  When time on the market is short prices go up.  When i bought my house a few years ago in west asheville, if the house was on the market more than a few days, it had something wrong with it.  When this happens, prices skyrocket year to year.  that is not sustainable, and is what happened in San diego, Florida, California, New Jersey, etc.  While our prices are nowhere near theirs, all it takes is 5 or 6 years of 15-25% growth for regular people to get priced out of the market.  I guess we just wait and see.

On the lighter side, reading the local business section about housing normally scares people to death.  It seems like the Citzen Times reprints AP articles that are really national, or washington DC based articles about housing “crisis” or falling prices, etc, but leaves the local market wrap-up for footnotes and side-bar articles.  At least this one should offer some hope to local people that our housing market has not tanked.  while you may need to wait a little longer to sell, prices are still up.  Theoretically, of you are willing to give up on some of your INCREDIBLE gains over the past years, you will be able to sell in whatever time frame you need to. 

Just my thoughts.  Anyone have anything to add?

David

Mud 081407, This article from the Citizen-Times dated Aug 14, 2007 is yet another black eye on the developers in the Asheville area, which ultimately will result in the tightening of restrictions.  As a developer, I agree with the article in that there should be harsher penalties handed out to developers when they are in blatant violation of current regulations.  This would prevent them from just shrugging off their responsibilities.  However, I think the fines should be placed on a sliding scale based on the size and value of the development being planned.  It is ludicrous to fine the same amount to small lot developer who’s return on a project is very small compared to a larger developer who could possibly reaps millions of dollars of profit from a larger scale development.  The small developer could go broke very quickly, while the larger developer could laugh in the face of similar fine and simply pass them on to you the consumer.  I also think that people do need to understand that there are some naturally occurring events that you simply can not plan for and in these cases, if a developer quickly assesses the damages and medicates for those damages then cut the person some slack.  If, however, the developer is not quick to remedy the problem that is created, I think he/she should be fined to the fullest extent.  Development is not going to go away, this area is just too popular.  I do think though that there are proper ways of doing things and some of the developers in this area have no business being in the business.  Their lack of knowledge and general lack of concern for anything other than the bottom line makes them dangerous.  What do you think?

Brian 

Folks its getting ugly if you have a home to sell.  Generally that would mean good news for home buyers.  However,  if you do not have good credit you may not be able to find financing, because of the turmoil in the mortgage markets.  The following link has the latest article on what is proving to be a severe stagnation and/or decline in real estate markets: Home Prices Drop.  The article, as with most data, is based on National averages and does not reflect the Asheville, NC market as accurately, but the effects of other regions faltering real estate markets can be felt here.  As of today there are 7,409 single family residences available through our regional MLS system, this of course does not include any of the For Sale By Owner listings.  This number is way up, and I do mean WAY UP.  What does this all mean?  If you have strong credit and are looking to buy, now is a good time or even wait a couple more months and see what happens this winter, because sellers are going to start getting desperate, if not already there.  As home builder I can tell you what it means.  My construction company, Blue Ridge Homes, has stopped all spec building for the time being and has turned its focus on custom only.  Its lean times around our household, because we’re not building as much and as a Realtor sales are sharply off.  At this point all I can do is keep my fingers crossed that our illustrious government and banking institutions do not totally slaughter us with their lack of foresight when setting new policies.

Brian

Spruce Pine Developer,  When I read this article and makes me wonder how people can be so damn crooked and immoral.  As a Realtor and a Developer I am appalled a what some people will do to benefit themselves.  It seems that there is no extent that some folks will go to in order to increase their bottom line and yet if this SOB is ever caught he’ll probably just get a slap on the wrist and be placed in some country club prison.  I think he should be thrown under the jail or better yet chained to a chair in a room with all the people he swindled.

Realtors See Sales Drop - If you had any doubts, which I could not see how that is possible, that are real estate markets have softened and transitioned trastically from the sellers market of the past couple of years to a buyers market, just read the linked file printed last week in Asheville’s Citizen-Times newspaper.  As a Realtor its scary as hell and I try to take solice in the statements from the Association of Realtors that this trend should level out come the middle of next year, but thats still some time off.  The markets that seem to be the most affected are in the price range of $350K to somewhere around $800K.  I know that my clients who are currently trying to sell for a number of reasons or searching far and wide for a light at the end of the tunnel.  I guess we can only count our blessings that we are living in Asheville and not some of the other markets in the nation that have seen retail values drop close to 40% just to generate activity, with no end in sight.  How are the markets doing where you are from?

First-Time Buyers Blues,  This article found in the August 17, 2007 edition of The Week magazine is a statement on the sorry state of affairs in the nations real estate market.  It seems that the American Dream of home ownership is slipping further and further away as prices continue to climb and as credit for those would-be buyers dwindles.  It seems that for right now as the world markets are in turmoil over sub-prime lending and tightening credit lines that the there is no end in sight.  I know that as a first time home buyer not long ago, who’s credit scores were recovering from bad decisions in my earlier days and a nonexistent savings account, that I would never have been able to be sitting where I am today if I had been buying in today’s markets.  I think it is a sad state of affairs when our own citizens who work hard can not afford to buy the roof over their head.  What do you think?

Brian

    Well it is official, Tiger Woods will design his first American Golf Course right here in the mountains of Western North Carolina.  Announced several days ago, Tiger Woods Golf Course, at a press conference concerning the Cliff Developments.  This is sure to be a wild success when you consider the popularity of the 31 year old golfing icon.  I guess that golf course developments have not run out of steam in the mountains, they just keep reaching for bigger names and bigger price tags.  I would venture to guess that the real estate values in the Cliffs at High Carolina will be unmatched any where in WNC, I guess Bobby Gin and his Laurelmore Development in Boone, NC are cringing right now.  Here is what are local paper had to say Tiger Woods Golf Course, Citizen-Times. What are your thoughts?

Brian

The NC Association of Realtors has been fighting a new proposed tax on the sale of your home.  I just wanted to bring everybody’s attention to it.  Please CLICK HERE to go to the Associations website concerning this issue.

Brian

Just wanted to drop a quick note and let everybody know about a great new FREE information source about the Asheville area and real estate buying tips.  The new site can be found at: www.ashevillehomesandrealestate.com you should definitely check this page out.  Also, do not forget to check back frequently as we will be updating it frequently.

Brian

In its first test of the new subdivision ordinances, Madison County’s Planning Board approved a 692ac development in Trust, 163ac development in Hot Springs, but canned a development in the Wolf Laurel area to be called Wolf Haven.  According to the article in the News-Sentinel, Madison County Subdivision Approval, the standing room only crowd present for the meeting was boisterous and unruly at times causing Ward Scott at one time to call the crowd into order by saying, “order. order. This is not Jerry Springer.”

I think we are going to see that as development continues to move north of Asheville these types of meetings and confrontations between developers and county citizens are only going to increase and with the Planning Board giving themselves new powers in their ability to approve or disapprove subdivision plans under the new subdivision ordinances, that developers will increasingly find themselves at the end of a very short stick. 
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